1 of 7
2 of 7
3 of 7
4 of 7
5 of 7
6 of 7
7 of 7
David Tolfree, VP, MANCEF
In my columns I shall be reviewing new directions for those emerging technologies that are most likely to have a profound impact on manufacturing industries in the decades ahead. Following up on the technologies I outlined in my last article, ‘Meeting the Challenges of the 21st Century’, I will examine here how intelligent robotic-controlled machines are likely to change the future directions of automated manufacturing processes and our own lives.
In his first book, ‘The Age of Intelligent Machines’, published in 1990, the futurist, Ray Kurzweil (1), claims machines with intelligence that greatly exceeds that of humans will be in operation in the first half of the 21st century. It’s a view being increasingly shared by others. The exponential improvements in computer power, batteries, power electronics, motors, sensors, processors and most important, in artificial intelligence, mean the time is near for intelligent robotic technologies to surge ahead to solve problems that traditional robots and automated machinery cannot solve. These will lead the Fourth Industrial Revolution.
Future robotic machines may not be humanoid in appearance as portrayed in the Star Wars and Terminator films but could take many forms. However, where there will be a similarity to their fictional counterparts is that they will be endowed with artificial intelligence, commonly known as AI, defined as the ability to perform continuous tasks more accurately, by analysing and interpreting data way beyond the capability of human brains. It is the integration of AI with other technologies that will determine how fast such machines will be developed and universally employed. Another factor in their adoption will be their cost-effectiveness over human labour. In some industries, computer systems have already replaced or limited entire workforces so intelligent robots will similarly displace skilled human labour.
Two applications that are already driving developments are: remotely controlled space vehicles such as landers and unmanned air vehicles (UAVs) currently used as autonomous drones by the US military. More driverless cars, boats and trains are likely to follow in the near future.
The Lander Rover named Curiosity, launched in 2012 and still operating on Mars as part of NASA's long term Mars Exploration Program to determine the planet’s ability to support life, is a good example of remotely-controlled robotic automation. This is a research vehicle into which are built all the latest technological advances so it’s a realistic test bed.
Robotic automation is not new. The first system of industrial robots went into operation at the General Motors plant in 1961. Later, almost all companies involved in large-scale car assembly and production employed robotics. They were quickly adapted by other industries, particularly in oil and chemicals where hazardous materials required to be handled. Most industrial robots used in manufacturing today are no more than advanced control arms with limited sensing and reasoning capabilities. They are preconfigured to carry out repetitive structured tasks but are not flexible. During the decades little changed until MEMS technologies evolved and enabled the production of a wide range of low-cost more advanced sensors systems. This opened up a range of new possibilities for the development of more sophisticate automated machines.
In 2011 the first large-scale commercial application of motion sensors was introduced in Microsoft’s Kinect – a hands-free sensor device for the Xbox360 video-game console (2) that captures and integrates a player’s motions. For the gaming industry it was a breakthrough and an instant success with 8 million systems sold in the first sixty days. Now these devices are built into a wide variety of gaming and other products.
A quiet revolution is in progress as we rapidly move from static robotic automatic machinery found in the automotive industry to intelligent mobile robotics. Mobile robots are becoming more commonplace in commercial and industrial settings. Hospitals often use autonomous mobile robots to move materials. Recent trials using surgical robots for carrying out basic surgery have proved successful and are now being developed to carry out more complex laproscopic procedures. The surgeon can be located in another country while carrying out a delicate operation on a patient from a key pad. I first witnessed this in the late 1990s being carried out on a model in a research hospital. Progress has been slow because at that time the remote handling technology was not good enough. Now with the pressures on surgeons and a huge increase in demand for operations, technology enhancements are making robotic surgery possible.
The next step will be when a robot surgeon with AI can assess information and carry out clinical and surgical procedures without the assistance of its human counterpart. It will not require sleep or overtime payments so cost will be reduced and efficiency 100%. In the short- term it will release specialist surgeons for more complicated operations. But intelligent robots will be capable of learning faster than humans so even specialists in the long-term could become redundant.
Robotic technologies raise issues related to their social acceptance. Eventually such machines could replace humans in many traditional service sector jobs. With the fast recall of data it will be relatively easy to staff call centres and back offices with intelligent talking computers and automated systems. The use of service robots is expected to grow faster than the use of industrial robots. Inevitably there will be a backlash against them as many of the people who lose their jobs will not have the necessary skills for alternative work. STEM education curriculums will need to be adjusted to accommodate new skill sets for different types of jobs. In addition, investors are more likely to fund processes employing robotic technologies since the lower running costs and reduced risks will offset the high capital outlay of installation.
The current market for robotic technologies is estimated by IDTechEx to be worth $11 billion but with the advances being highlighted here this will probably grow to £120 billion in the next decade (2). It will provide a massive opportunity for innovation and more efficient manufacturing worldwide. Manufacturers in high-cost countries will regain a competitive edge and will benefit in the global market.
The world will change when intelligent robots and robotic systems can be mass-produced extensively and employed throughout industry. When these robots have organic brains like our own and can make choices and decisions so they can engage in autonomous behaviour they will become androids, or to use a science fiction terminology, cyborgs. Such robots could then be capable of self-regeneration. Then we could be witnessing the early beginnings of the ‘Age of Intelligent Machines’ as predicted by Kurzweil.
Cybernetic enhancements are already being fitted to our bodies - pacemakers, retinal and hearing implants, bionic limbs and prosthetic limbs being common examples. In the years ahead many more will become available. Humans will have to adapt to collaborate with machines, and when that collaboration takes place, machines could become more intelligent. But rather than fearing this paradigm of humans versus machines it could become a shared intelligence; working together they could deliver outcomes that neither could produce alone. Much of this vision for the future will depend on a greater understanding of the workings of our own brains. The brain’s neural networks that control our biological memory and determine intelligence, operates mostly in analogue so minute changes can be quickly assimilated and actioned. AI in its present form is basically digital programming so lacks that flexibility. The limitations of human programming will prevent it ever equalling the abilities of the brain. Only if in the future there is a biological fusion between human and machines will these two fundamentals of intelligence become united to enhance humanity. We could see androids that are self-evolving, self-learning, and self-correcting being better equipped to survive in the future than humans. Then we may need to invent a new name. Kurzweil calls it the ‘Singularity’.
References:
- The Age of Intelligent Machines
R, Kurzweil, MIT Press October 1990.
- http://www.xbox.com/en-US/xbox-360/accessories/kinect
- Robotics 2016-20126 report by IDTechEx Research
http://www.idtechex.com/
MANCEF Vice President – Europe
David Tolfree is a professional physicist with thirty years’ research and managerial experience working for
the UK’s research councils. He was the co-founder and director of Technopreneur Ltd., a technical consultancy company for the commercial exploitation of micro-nanotechnologies and a consultant to UK Government departments on micro-nanotechnologies. He is one of the founders of MANCEF and the UK Institute of Nanotechnology and is a member of the UK NanoKTN. David has 160 publications, including roadmaps, newspaper, magazine and journal articles and books. He has given interviews on television He has given interviews on television and radio on emergent technologies and been an editor and reviewer for a number of related scientific journals. He currently serves on the editorial Advisory Board of the International Commercial Micro Manufacturing Magazine.