David Tolfree, science and technology writer
In 1947, John Bardeen and Walter Brattain demonstrated the point contact transistor, the first semiconductor amplifier; then in 1948, William Shockley invented the more robust junction transistor, which was built in 19511. The placement of four active transistors onto a silicon chip in 1951 initiated the development of the microchip or integrated circuit, which revolutionised electronics and created the new digital age. Semiconductors are its bedrock and have now reached a similar level of importance to that of oil and gas. They will soon exceed the latter when electricity is generated by other energy sources, notably solar power being one dominant source, which uses silicon semiconductor converters.
Today, using extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography, it is now possible to etch silicon transistors with nanometre diameters equivalent to the size of human cells and viruses. Microchips have become nanochips and biochips with extensive applications in medicine.
In 2021, IBM revealed that it had produced the world's first 2 nm chip, developed less than four years after it had announced a 5 nm design. This latest breakthrough could enable up to 50 billion transistors to be laced on a chip the size of a fingernail2.
Where could semiconductor technology take us?
Most people have either seen or know about the Terminator science fiction films, in which intelligent machines embedded with microchips took control of the world and set about exterminating humans using programmed robots. These films were thought-provoking not just because of the application of advanced micro-nanotechnologies to produce autonomous intelligent robots but because they highlighted the reluctance of humans to understand the reality of their creations and accept the inevitable change they could bring about.
In the second decade of the 21st century, micro-nanochips are ubiquitous in almost every product and system. Without them, we would return to the world of the early 20th century and suffer the deprivations of that period. The fabrication and miniaturisation of silicon semiconductors are among humanity's greatest engineering achievements. However, the increasing dependence on them for use in essential products and communication systems could have global economic and geopolitical ramifications. In the future, they could possibly lead to the type of scenarios in the films mentioned above.
Where are we now?
Today, we still have a fragmented world with the continuation of 20th century nationalism and autocratic regimes with dictators who want to dominate it. Equally serious is the widening gap and disparity between knowledge and its useful application in solving the world’s social and economic problems.
Recent media reports have highlighted the shortage of microchips, due in part to the disruption of supply chains during the pandemic based on the ownership and accessible location of fabrication plants in the world. But this is also due to the rapidly increased market demand for chips in new products such as electric automobiles, smartphones and computers, in which they are essential components.
Micro-nanochips or integrated circuits were key elements in the creation of globalisation, so are dominant elements in international trade. The world’s most powerful nations, China and the US with its allies in Taiwan, South Korea, Japan and Europe, possess a small number of companies that design, manufacture and distribute chips. China’s economy is dependent on them, but with the US and its allies being the main producers, the shortage has become an inextricable part of the geopolitical power struggle. This has forced countries to review their policies and to find secure places for the future manufacturing and supply of chips. These setbacks, the history of semiconductor development and the evolution of Silicon Valley in the US, are described in Chris Miller’s book, Chip War: The Fight for the World's Most Critical Technology3.
Current status of chip production
The Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is the world's largest independent dedicated semiconductor foundry. It produces over 66 percent of the world’s chips. The company was initially established by the US as a contract manufacturing and design company and the first to manufacture 5 nm chips. These will be used by Apple in its as new smartphones and iPad, etc.4.
As the risk of a conflict between Taiwan and China increases, TSMC has expanded its operations outside of Taiwan to extend and diversify its supply chain, opening new fabs in the US and Japan, with plans for expansion into Europe. According to the European Institute for Asian Studies (EIAS) in Brussels, TSMC accounts for 53 percent of the global market share while it controls about 84 percent of the manufacturing of advanced chips under 10 nm, valued in 2020 at US$107.53 billion5. These chips are essential to every leading-edge product, including military weapons so the countries that control the design and production of chips will have the power to control the global market.
With concern about the future supply of microchips, the US president recently signed the CHIPS and Science Act, writing into law a $280 billion package that includes $52 billion funding to boost US domestic semiconductor manufacturing6. This funding is for R&D, manufacturing and workforce development and to provide new fabs. It will also stimulate advances in the fields of quantum computing and biotechnology, all of which require advanced chips.
A future scenario
Research carried out in the field of medicine at Vanderbilt University in the US by Prof. Herculano-Houzel in 2018 estimated that the human brain has about 86 billion neurons7. With the increasing billions of transistors that could be placed on a chip, the time is approaching when these could become implants in the human brain to augment human capabilities. In addition to their use in external aids, such implants are already available for improvements in hearing, eyesight, heart rate control, controlled drug infusion, etc. They are already enhancing the intelligence of robots and machines beyond that of humans. This is the subject of Ray Kurzweil's book, The Singularity is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology8. He predicts that as technology continues to accelerate exponentially, intelligent machines and humans will inevitably merge into a single entity. He suggests that machines and humans would be classified as ‘transhuman’. This is a staged process, but as human endeavours, both physically and intellectually, alone cannot solve the world’s problems, this unity may come sooner than expected. The rapid development of quantum computers, new materials and energy sources may advance it.
We may not see the Terminator stories become reality soon, but those who own the design software and knowledge to manufacture and apply chips for essential products and systems will be the rulers until intelligent, autonomous robotic machines take over and make their creators redundant. Intelligent chips in all their various forms will be in control and so could become the rulers of the new world. To use a well-known cliché, Today’s fiction could become tomorrow’s reality.
Anecdote
Back in the mid-1990s, having migrated away from the field of nuclear particle physics to work on deep X-ray lithography using radiation from the synchrotron at the Daresbury Laboratory in Cheshire, I made the first 3D high-aspect-ratio microstructures using the German lithography, electroplating and moulding (Lithographie, Galvanik und Abformung (LIGA)) process. It gave me insight into the power of micro-nanotechnologies for producing precision microparts for a range of new products. However, synchrotrons would be too expensive for the mass production of such parts, and X-rays, with their very short wavelengths, would damage the crystalline structure of silicon semiconductors used in micro-nanochips, hence our preferred use of EUV lithography.
Thirty years later, that insight has exceeded my expectations. Sadly, it took such a long time for it to happen. From now, we can expect an exponential increase in technological developments, but unless there is a paradigm shift in human attitudes, their useful exploitation will again be delayed.
David Tolfree, science and technology writer
References1Computer History Museum (CHM). Inventing the transistor [web page]. Digital logic exhibition.Available at: https://bit.ly/3Un9RQ3
2IBM (2021). IBM unveils world’s first 2 nanometer chip technology, opening a new frontier for semiconductors [press release]. May 6.Available at: https://ibm.co/3E08tNO
3Miller, C. (2022). Chip War: The Fight for the World's Most Critical Technology. London: Simon & Schuster UK Ltd.
4Apple M1 (2022). Wikipedia.Available at: https://bit.ly/3fCnhsL
5Chang, Y./the European Institute for Asian Studies (EIAS) (2021). A Taiwanese perspective on the semiconductor industry: maintaining the competitive edge [op-ed]. August 27.Available at: https://bit.ly/3U3TgBd
6Kelly, M./The Verge (2022). Biden signs $280 billion CHIPS and Science Act [press release]. August 9.Available at: https://bit.ly/3fvBiIP
7Herculano-Houzel, S./BrainFacts.org (2018). How many neurons are in the brain? [video]. December 18.Available at: https://bit.ly/3WIMAu3
8Kurzweil, R. (2005). The Singularity is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology. New York: Viking.