Duc Pham, chance professor of engineering, Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Birmingham
As I am writing this column, hustings are still being held for the leadership of the Conservative Party and the prize that will come with it, namely, the premiership of the UK. While one cannot be certain about who will win, there is no prize for correctly guessing what the aftermath will be: a six-letter word beginning with B and much uttered during the last three years.
Yes, B is for Brexit. Both contenders for the post have pledged to deliver Brexit. As the only deal on the table—the withdrawal agreement concluded with the other 27 EU countries—has been rejected by Parliament on multiple occasions and there will be no time to negotiate a new agreement, Brexit is now almost sure to happen without a deal.
We have heard various predictions about the dire consequences to the economy of a no-deal Brexit, so I will not bore readers by repeating them here. From the point of view of UK higher education (HE), although leaving the EU without a deal might be suboptimal in the short term, would it, in the long run, be the Armageddon forecast by many of the great and the good in academia?
Immediately after the 2016 referendum, a major concern in the UK HE sector was the future of those colleagues originally from elsewhere in the EU, which is one in six academic staff according to The Royal Society1. However, the issue has been effectively resolved by the UK government’s consent unilaterally to grant settled status to EU citizens satisfying reasonable residency requirements, whether or not there is a Brexit deal.
Another concern related to the ability of existing EU students to complete courses started before Brexit and future EU students to come and study after Brexit. It is now clear that students commencing studies in the UK before Brexit will not be affected. After Brexit, without a deal, new EU students are likely to have to pay higher tuition fees as do other international students currently.
It has been said that the tuition fee issue could pose a problem for some institutions. The Times Higher Education (THE) magazine recently calculated that increasing EU tuition fees to the average level for other international students could cost 35 UK universities £2 million or more a year due to an anticipated reduction in the numbers of EU students2. Some institutions even stand to lose over £7 million.
The above calculation was based on an assumed reduction of 57 percent in student numbers compared with 2017–2018 when there were 140,000 EU students in the UK. However, if the drop was 39 percent or less, the same analysis would see universities increase their income overall. To quote THE directly: “If the fall was limited to 30 percent, then 50 institutions would get at least £1 million a year more.”
There is also the question of access to EU research funding. The Royal Society has claimed that without a deal, the UK could lose access to over £1 billion a year1. However, although transient problems might occur, there should not be lasting damage, since the government has plans to establish either its own replacement funding programme or a mechanism for UK researchers to continue participating in EU programmes.
Thus, all is not doom and gloom for UK HE, even with a no-deal Brexit. While the new government should pursue the best possible deal until the eleventh hour, no deal is no big deal for the sector. Let me end this column with another B word. No, it is not what I expect that you are thinking of, although, if I were a betting person, I would be thinking of the same.
This time, B is for bullish. We have reason to be bullish about the UK HE sector, safe in the knowledge that it is and will remain among the very best in the world. This is fully evidenced by the quality and volume of our academic outputs, our share of the world’s most prestigious prizes and the esteem within which our institutions are held among our peers and our prospective students.
Given our strong position, we will continue to attract collaborators and students from across the EU after Brexit, deal or no deal. Moreover, Brexit will force us to set our sights further afield and pay greater attention to countries beyond our immediate neighbourhood. This will promote diversity and internationalism, which can only be good for a thriving HE sector in a progressive nation.
www.birmingham.ac.uk/schools/mechanical-engineering/index.aspx
References1“No-deal” is a bad deal for science [fact sheet]. September 5, 2018. The Royal Society. Available at: bit.ly/2JkOzAO
2Baker, S. (2019). EU fees change could cost English universities £7 million a year [press release]. May 9. Times Higher Education (THE). Available at: bit.ly/2YIlO6k