David Tolfree, independent science and technology consultant
The beginning of the third decade of the twenty-first century is timely for reviewing the status of products, systems and markets that have been derived from the exploitation of small technologies in the last twenty years and to look at their futures. The outcome of our exit from the EU, the variability of global markets and the political and economic uncertainties will present both challenges and opportunities for companies in the year ahead. The world is in a state of accelerating change, driven partly by the rapid advances in key technologies that are disrupting companies in many sectors of industry. Those who can innovate and adapt to change will survive in the global market but for many, business as usual will not be an option.
The numerous research and development programmes being carried out across the world in almost every sector of human activity are yielding masses of new data. Artificial intelligence (AI) is increasingly used to analyse this data and give a better understanding of how to utilise it to improve existing methodologies. This is already proving to be of particular value in the medical and healthcare sectors for improving diagnosis and treatment of disease.
However, there is a fundamental issue that still exists, even after being extensively highlighted back in the 1980s. This is the long timeline, sometimes referred to as ‘the chasm’, between the acquisition of research results and their practical exploitation into commercially viable end products or systems. Reduction in time-to-market gives producers a commercial advantage and is often the differentiating issue between success and failure. Although new computerised automated production methods, the keystone of Industry 4.0, are improving productivity and quality, increasing customer confidence and reducing time-to-market by eliminating the need for prototyping and extensive testing, the problem still exists.
“Mighty oaks from little acorns grow” is an old English proverb that was frequently quoted in talks in the early 1990s to illustrate how new industries could grow from small beginnings. It was not until the late 1990s that serious commercial exploitation of micro-nanotechnologies (MNTs) started to take place. Today, the digital microelectronics industry, which grew from those small beginnings, has a huge market value of many billions of dollars.
It should be remembered that microtechnology originated in 1947, at the Bell Telephone Laboratories in the US, with the invention of the first semiconductor transistor, based on the PN junction diode. In 1958, it enabled the development of the silicon-based integrated circuit (silicon chip), followed in 1971 by the microprocessor, which enabled small computers to be built using solid-state memories. These milestone developments were the basis for the phenomenal growth of a global microelectronics industry, which provides the elements for most of today’s electronics products. Later, it was the convergence of microelectronics with micromechanical systems (MEMS) that enabled the manufacture of a vast range of new products and systems now used in every sector of industry.
The global market for MEMS was valued at US$48.74 billion in 2018, and it is projected to reach $122.83 billion by 2026, registering a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11 percent from 2018–20261. This growth is fuelled by the exponential demand for better-integrated smartphones, smart sensors for use in medical applications, wearable devices, autonomous vehicles, Internet of Things (IoT) devices and a range of domestic and office appliances.
In this article, I have highlighted a select few of those products that I expect to produce transformational changes in society.
Status of microchips
The density of transistors on a silicon microchip is approaching the limit set by Moore’s Law, which in 1965 predicted that the number of transistors that needed to be crammed into a circuit would double every two years. Generations of chip-making technology are defined by the size of the smallest structure that can be produced in a silicon chip. The current record is Intel’s 14 nm2 transistor. To keep up with Moore’s Law this year, this needs to be reduced to 5 nm2. A breakthrough is urgently needed to satisfy Moore’s law, so research is continuing.
Several years ago, IBM decided to look at developing a commercially viable carbon nanotube transistor that is small enough so billions can be accommodated on a single chip2. Specifically, attempts have been made to produce a transistor using six nanotubes lined up in parallel, each 1.4 nm wide and 30 nm long, with a spacing of 8 nm, but so far it has failed to work satisfactorily. The company predicted that chips made up of nanotube transistors could afford up to five times the speed of traditional silicon transistor chips.
Medical and healthcare developments
During the last two decades, research funded by charitable, private and public sources has produced results that can be applied to clinical trials. This is accelerating the development of safe, reliable medical practice as well as new products such as those highlighted below.
Wearable health devices
Miniaturisation technologies have advanced personalised medicine in a number of ways, including the development of a wide range of low-cost, easy-to-use wearable health devices (WHDs), many of which can be purchased from shops or online sources. The new drive is to extend personal medicine to patients through the use of such devices for the early detection of disease, thus increasing life expectancy and reducing healthcare costs.
Flexible, Integrated, Lightweight, Multifunctional skin
Advances in the manufacture of nanomaterials that afford exceptional strength and corrosion resistance have enabled significant developments in prosthetic implants, tissue engineering and drug delivery.
A research area of particular interest in plastic surgery is the use of nanoscale tools for bone regeneration, bone prosthetics and drug delivery. A prime example is the Flexible, Integrated, Lightweight, Multifunctional skin (FILMskin) research project being undertaken by the Nanomaterials Synthesis and Properties Group at ORNL and NASA’s Langley Research Center3. The objective of the project is to develop an artificial skin for prosthetic arms and hands that mimics the skin’s properties and allows the prosthetic wearer to feel heat, cold and touch. FILMskin combines superhydrophobic material, thin layers of carbon nanotubes and advanced sensors. If the project proves a success and large areas of the artificial skin can be produced, it could revolutionise skin grafting.
Smart imaging needle
Researchers at the University of Adelaide in Australia have developed a smart imaging needle to make brain biopsies safer4. The device is a standard clinical biopsy needle that contains a tiny fibre-optic camera, the size of a human hair. The camera uses infrared (IR) light to enable the surgeon to see at-risk blood vessels and therefore avoid causing potentially fatal bleeds.
The smart imaging needle has been used successfully in a pilot trial involving 11 patients at the Sir Charles Gairdner Hospital in Australia. It is hoped that the needle can be commercialised, but it could be some years before it is available in hospitals.
Global MEMS for medical applications market
The global MEMS medical applications market was valued at $1.9 billion in 20135. It is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20.2 percent from 2013 to 2025 and reach an estimated value of $8.3 billion in 2025. These figures have been taken from an in-depth report on the market conditions of the world’s major regions, namely North America, Europe and Asia-Pacific. The report covers the market landscape and its growth prospects in the years ahead. Data was provided by nine of the top medical manufacturing companies.
Wireless sensors
WiFi has become an accepted part of communication in recent years, but the integration of wireless transmitters onto microchips with multifunctional sensors has permeated across a wide spectrum of commercial and consumer applications such as monitoring of location, position, force, velocity, acceleration, temperature, air quality, and controlling of and communicating with domestic appliances. It has stimulated use of the IoT and the generation of high-speed networks such as the new 5G.
Autonomous vehicle sensors
It has been reported that more than 40 companies are developing autonomous vehicles (AVs)6. However, all countries need to have regulations in place before these vehicles can be used. AVs will require sophisticated but expensive microsensor systems based on camera and radar devices.
GPS sensors
There are numerous tracking and positioning sensor devices that use a Global Positioning System (GPS) for location data. Bosch is responsible for developing one of the latest compact wearable smart sensors for improved GPS location tracking7. This device ensures accurate pedestrian navigation at all times, even in shielded indoor areas such as subways.
Internet connectivity
Gartner predicted a rise in the global number of connected things in use from 8.4 billion in 2017 to 20.4 billion in 20208. China, North America and Western Europe were said to account for 67 percent of all IoT devices.
Extensive Internet connectivity through the use of phone networks and computers or mobile devices has been the most significant advancement in the last twenty years. This has empowered people everywhere, facilitating more instantaneous communication as well as acquisition or sharing of information. Smart mobile phones have become ubiquitous since they are affordable and available to almost everyone. 5G connectivity means there will soon be a global information and communication abundance. This, in turn, will lead to an exponential rise in new discoveries and products that benefit everyone and generate unparalleled entrepreneurial possibilities.
The way ahead
Predicting the future directions of the technologies outlined in this article in these times of rapid change is risky because progress is not linear but exponential.
In general, the emergent technologies of the 21st century are helping to make the world a better place, producing improvements in health, safety and prosperity for more people than ever before. Clearly, much still needs to be done to achieve the global abundance for humanity described by Peter H Diamandis and Steven Kotler in their book Abundance: the future is better than you think9. However, I am optimistic that such a goal is achievable this century.
David Tolfree, independent science and technology consultant
References
1Tewari, D. and Baul, S. (2019). Microelectromechanical system (MEMS) market by type (sensors and actuators), and application (consumer electronics, automotive, industrial, aerospace and defense, healthcare, and telecommunication, and others): global opportunity analysis and industry forecast, 2019–2026 [report]. Allied Market Research. Available at: http://bit.ly/2Ncu0Ir
2Simonite, T. (2014). IBM: commercial nanotube transistors are coming soon [press release]. July 1. MIT Technology Review. Available at: http://bit.ly/2OqkzFS
3Krause, C. (2018). Nanotechnology skin for prosthetic arms. January 5. Nanowerk. Available at: http://bit.ly/35KUGqa
4Fratantoni, M. (2018). Australian scientists trial ‘smart’ brain imaging needle in humans for first time [press release]. December 20. The New Daily. Available at: http://bit.ly/30aJbHp
5Global (United States, European Union and China) MEMS in medical applications research report 2019–2025 [report]. August 13, 2019. Market Reports World. Available at: http://bit.ly/2NflMiW
640+ corporations working on autonomous vehicles [press release]. August 28, 2019. CB Insights. Available at: http://bit.ly/3a2KCfG
7GPS World Staff (2018). New Bosch sensor for wearables improves GPS location tracking [press release]. November 7. GPS World. Available at: http://bit.ly/2R8faUy
8van der Meulen, R. (2017). Gartner says 8.4 billion connected “things” will be in use in 2017, up 31 percent from 2016 [press release]. February 7. Gartner. Available at: https://gtnr.it/36JV61c
9Diamandis, P. and Kotler, S. (2012). Abundance: the future is better than you think. 1st ed. New York: Free Press.